---
name: win-loss-analysis
description: "Creates win/loss analysis frameworks with interview questions, pattern identification, and action plans. Use when you need to understand why deals close or fall through."
allowed-tools: Read Write Glob
metadata:
  author: matthewhitcham
  version: "1.0"
---

# Win/Loss Analysis

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when you need to:
- Build a systematic framework for analyzing why deals are won or lost
- Create interview scripts for post-decision prospect conversations
- Identify patterns across wins and losses to improve sales strategy
- Generate action plans based on win/loss insights

**DO NOT** use this skill for customer satisfaction surveys, churn analysis of existing customers, or competitive research. This is for analyzing specific sales outcomes.

---

## Core Principle

YOU CANNOT IMPROVE YOUR SALES PROCESS BY GUESSING WHY YOU WIN OR LOSE — SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF REAL DECISIONS REVEALS THE PATTERNS THAT ANECDOTES MISS.

---

## Phase 1: Brief

### Required Inputs

| Input | What to Ask | Default |
|-------|------------|---------|
| **Product/service** | "What do you sell?" | No default — must be provided |
| **Sales process** | "Describe your typical sales process (steps, timeline)." | Discovery call → proposal → close |
| **Win rate** | "What percentage of qualified deals do you close?" | Unknown |
| **Sample size** | "How many recent deals can you analyze? (wins and losses)" | 10-20 deals |
| **Common competitors** | "Who are you losing to most often?" | 1-2 key competitors |
| **Data available** | "Do you have CRM data, notes, or just memory?" | Basic notes and memory |

**GATE: Confirm the brief before building the analysis framework.**

---

## Phase 2: Analysis Framework

### Data Collection Structure

```
## Deal Analysis Template (per deal)

**Deal basics:**
- Company/prospect name
- Deal value
- Outcome: Won / Lost / Stalled
- Decision date
- Sales cycle length

**Decision factors:**
- Primary reason for decision (in their words)
- Competing options considered
- Who made the final decision
- What stage did the deal stall or close?

**Qualitative factors:**
- What did they value most about our offering?
- What concerns did they raise?
- How did they describe us vs. alternatives?
- Would they consider us for future needs?
```

### Win/Loss Interview Script

```
## Post-Decision Interview Questions (15-20 minutes)

**Opening:**
"Thank you for taking the time. I'm looking to improve how we work with
companies like yours, and your honest feedback is invaluable — whether
it's good or bad."

**Decision process:**
1. "Walk me through how you made this decision. What were the key steps?"
2. "Who was involved in the final decision?"
3. "What alternatives did you evaluate?"

**Decision factors:**
4. "What was the single most important factor in your decision?"
5. "What did we do well during the process?"
6. "Where did we fall short or leave you with concerns?"
7. "How did our pricing compare to what you expected or saw elsewhere?"

**Competitive insights:**
8. "Without naming names, how did we compare to the other options?"
9. "Was there anything a competitor offered that we didn't?"

**Closing:**
10. "If you could change one thing about our process, what would it be?"
11. "Would you consider us for future needs or recommend us to others?"
```

**GATE: Approve the framework before conducting analysis.**

---

## Phase 3: Pattern Analysis

### Win Pattern Report

```
## Why We Win — Top Patterns

**Pattern 1: [Theme]** (appeared in X of Y wins)
- Description: [What this looks like]
- Example: [Specific deal reference]
- Leverage: [How to replicate this in future deals]

**Pattern 2: [Theme]**
...

## Common Win Factors
| Factor | Frequency | Impact |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| [Factor] | X/Y deals | High/Medium/Low |
```

### Loss Pattern Report

```
## Why We Lose — Top Patterns

**Pattern 1: [Theme]** (appeared in X of Y losses)
- Description: [What this looks like]
- Root cause: [Why this happens]
- Fix: [Specific action to address]

## Common Loss Factors
| Factor | Frequency | Lost to | Fixable? |
|--------|-----------|---------|----------|
| [Factor] | X/Y deals | [Competitor/No decision] | Yes/No |
```

### Action Plan

```
## Priority Actions Based on Analysis

**Quick Wins (implement this week):**
1. [Action] — addresses [loss pattern], expected impact: [X]

**Strategic Changes (implement this quarter):**
2. [Action] — addresses [loss pattern], expected impact: [X]
3. [Action] — reinforces [win pattern], expected impact: [X]

**Long-Term Investments:**
4. [Action] — requires [resource/time], addresses [root cause]
```

---

## Phase 4: Polish

### 1. Ongoing Analysis Process

- Conduct win/loss interviews within 2 weeks of every deal outcome
- Update the pattern analysis monthly
- Review action plan progress quarterly
- Target: interview 50%+ of closed deals (won and lost)

### 2. Reporting Template

Create a one-page quarterly summary: win rate trend, top win/loss reasons, actions taken, and results of those actions.

### 3. Integration with Sales Process

Identify where in the sales process the loss patterns occur and recommend specific changes to those stages.

---

## Anti-Patterns

- **Only analyzing losses** — wins reveal what to double down on. Analyzing only losses creates a negativity bias.
- **Asking your sales rep why they lost** — they will say price or timing. The prospect's perspective is what matters.
- **Waiting too long for interviews** — memory fades. Interview within 2 weeks of the decision.
- **Small sample size conclusions** — patterns from 3 deals are anecdotes. Wait for 10+ deals before drawing strategic conclusions.
- **Analysis without action** — insights that never become process changes are wasted effort.

---

## Recovery

- **Prospects won't agree to interviews:** Offer a small incentive (gift card), keep it to 15 minutes, and emphasize you want honest feedback to improve.
- **No CRM data:** Start tracking now. Build the deal analysis template and commit to filling it out for every deal going forward.
- **Very few deals to analyze:** Start the process and accumulate data over 2-3 months before drawing conclusions.
- **User discovers their product is the problem:** Redirect to product improvement. Win/loss analysis sometimes reveals the fix isn't in sales — it's in the offer.
